The Rise, Fall And Return Of India’s Tigers

India successfully doubled its once-declining wild tiger population by 2022. A new study analyses population trends from 2006 to 2018 to understand key factors, including socio-ecological drivers, influencing tiger recovery and survival. Long-term population recovery depends on balancing conservation with economic incentives for local people, it finds.

For centuries, the majestic tiger roamed vast landscapes across Asia. However, poaching, habitat destruction, and human encroachment drove these apex predators to the brink of extinction. By the early 2000s, global tiger numbers had plummeted to 3,600, occupying less than 10% of their historical range.

Recognising the urgency of the crisis, tiger-range nations launched the Global Tiger Recovery Program in 2010, aiming to double wild tiger populations by 2022. India not only achieved this milestone but did so through science-driven policies, strong governmental commitment, and widespread public support. In the past two decades, tiger occupancy in the country has expanded by 30%. Today, it is home to 75% of the world’s wild tigers (3,167 as of 2022), occupying approximately 138,200 km² of habitat.

A study published in Science now sheds new light on India’s tiger resurgence, analysing population trends, habitat connectivity, and key ecological factors influencing their survival. “In the past, conservation efforts focused primarily on tiger numbers, but we are now taking a broader view and examining population extents, connectivity, and the factors driving extinction and colonisation,” says one of the authors of the study, Yadvendradev Jhala, an Indian National Science Academy (INSA) senior scientist, National Centre for Biological Sciences, Bangalore, and Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun.

Habitat gains and losses

As per the study, between 2006 and 2018, tigers reclaimed 41,767 km² of lost habitat in India. The most significant expansion occurred between 2014 and 2018, at an average annual increase of 2,929 km².

India’s land-sparing and land-sharing strategies played a crucial role in this recovery. “Protecting core areas (land-sparing) ensures tiger populations remain at sustainable levels, while conservation efforts in buffer zones facilitate human-tiger coexistence (land-sharing). This strategy also supports sink populations in stepping-stone habitats (tigers in small connecting habitats) and maintains genetic connectivity across landscapes, ensuring long-term recovery,” says Rajesh Gopal, secretary general of the Global Tiger Forum, who was associated with Project Tiger, a national tiger conservation programme, for 35 years.

This progress, however, was not without setbacks. Over a span of 12 years, local extinctions were recorded across 17,992 km², with the most severe declines (64%) occurring between 2006 and 2010. These were primarily driven by urbanisation, infrastructure development, and armed conflicts. Subsequent periods saw smaller losses — 17% of extinctions occurred between 2010 and 2014, and 19% between 2014 and 2018.

Armed conflicts, in particular, have been a significant driver of local tiger population extinctions, contributing to 47% of these losses. “Tiger populations have suffered significantly in conflict zones,” explains Jhala. Reserves affected by Naxal conflicts include Chhattisgarh’s Indravati, Achanakmar, and Udanti-Sitanadi reserves, and Jharkhand’s Palamau reserve. Tiger habitats in Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and eastern Maharashtra, too, remain vulnerable, as per the study, with low tiger occupancy and a high probability of extinction due to ongoing insurgencies.

Yet, encouragingly, in areas where conflicts have subsided, such as Nagarjunsagar-Srisailam (in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana), Amrabad (in Telangana), and Similipal (in Odisha), tigers have shown promising recovery, underscoring the undeniable link between political stability and effective wildlife protection.

The study also identified significant recovery potential in Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand, spanning 10,000 km². However, extreme poverty and poaching remain major challenges in these areas. “Addressing poverty in these regions could play a crucial role in facilitating tiger recovery, as improved economic conditions often lead to better habitat protection and reduced poaching pressures,” Jhala notes.

Habitat connectivity is another pressing concern. “Recovery is only possible when prey is abundant and connectivity through corridors is maintained,” explains Jhala. “The study shows that as the distance from corridors and core tiger habitats increases, the probability of colonisation declines.” Without well-connected landscapes, tiger populations remain vulnerable to isolation, limiting their long-term survival.

The human-tiger dynamic

Tiger survival isn’t solely dictated by human population density. The study analysed 1,973 surveyed grid cells representing areas with confirmed tiger presence and found that 85% of India’s tigers reside in protected reserves, 4% in habitat corridors, and 11% in multiple-use landscapes, including agricultural fields outside protected areas.

The findings show that while tigers thrive in prey-rich, human-free reserves, they also venture into adjacent habitats. In fact, as per the research, in newly recolonised areas, the average human density was 250 people/km², proving that conservation success depends more on economic incentives and coexistence strategies than simply minimising human presence.

One striking example is Sawai Madhopur, Rajasthan, where the local economy flourishes through tiger tourism in Ranthambore National Park. “Where economic incentives exist, people tolerate large carnivores in their neighbourhoods,” says Jhala. However, in regions where communities depend heavily on forests for survival, human-wildlife conflicts persist, increasing the risk of tiger extinctions.

Balancing conservation with sustainable livelihoods is, therefore, crucial. Initiatives such as ecotourism, sustainable farming, and compensation programmes can align economic and ecological goals, transforming protected areas into hubs for biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation. “Preventive and proactive measures — such as managing human-tiger conflicts, fostering community stewardship, and integrating efforts across multiple sectors — are essential for long-term success,” says Gopal.

How reliable are tiger population surveys?

According to Jhala, India’s conservation journey took a pivotal turn in 2005, when tigers were declared locally extinct in Sariska Tiger Reserve, Rajasthan, despite official records listing 19 tigers. The national outcry that followed forced swift government action.

“The Prime Minister appointed the Tiger Task Force in response to the crisis,” recalls Jhala. The incident exposed serious flaws in outdated pugmark-based monitoring methods. As a result, India has now adopted modern techniques such as camera trapping, genetic analysis, and M-STrIPES (Monitoring System for Tigers: Intensive Protection and Ecological Status) to assist effective patrolling, assess ecological status and mitigate human-wildlife conflict in and around tiger reserves.

“Today, M-STrIPES, used by 44,000 personnel, ensures data authenticity by geotagging every recorded tiger sign — whether pugmarks, scat, or scratch marks. You can’t sit in a tea shop and say you’ve surveyed an area,” Jhala explains.

This technology has transformed tiger monitoring, enhanced conservation decisions, and minimised data falsification, ensuring more reliable and authentic findings.

Safeguarding a fragile victory

Yet, despite significant gains, any dilution of conservation protections risks reversing decades of progress. “Tiger recovery is only possible where space and prosperity exist. Moreover, without core habitats, shared landscapes wouldn’t be viable,” Jhala explains.

India’s tiger recovery also holds valuable lessons for global carnivore conservation. Gopal highlights its broader implications, “Decades of tiger conservation have deepened our understanding of predator demography, behaviour, and habitat dynamics. These insights are critical for managing other large predators across diverse landscapes.”

As an umbrella species, tigers are vital to the health of entire ecosystems. Their habitats significantly overlap with those of Asian elephants (59%) and leopards (62%). Protecting tigers preserves biodiversity.

Sustaining this success, however, demands ongoing investment in conservation policies, habitat protection, and economic incentives for local communities. “Tigers can coexist with humans if they have secure core populations nearby. But if development is not managed responsibly, extinctions will persist,” says Jhala.

(Published under Creative Commons from Mongabay-India. Read the original article here)