Commentary: A Promise Of Development Or A Path To Displacement?

One bright afternoon, we stood at the Subansiri Lower Hydro Electric Project (SLHEP) site, an under-construction dam in Arunachal Pradesh. The sun cast a golden glow on the Subansiri river below. The hum of machinery filled the air, blending with the rhythm of workers, each step bringing the project closer to life. Amidst the bustle, we spoke to a worker in his early thirties, his face weathered by the sun. He paused, wiped his brow, and shared his story, “After COVID-19, we secured some jobs here, but we hope they’ll hire more locals. Many of us have skills and certificates. If the government supports us, we can work here, earn a decent living, and stay home instead of seeking jobs in other states.”

This resonates with the discussions at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024, where the pressing need for a ‘just transition’ was underscored. The term ‘just transition’ refers to the deliberate effort to shift towards sustainable development and clean energy systems while protecting the rights and livelihoods of affected communities, particularly those dependent on fossil fuel industries or vulnerable to climate impacts. As India moves towards clean energy, it is vital that projects like SLHEP not only provide sustainable power but also foster inclusive economic opportunities, creating jobs and supporting the livelihoods of those central to this transition.

The SLHEP is a 116-metre-high concrete gravity dam on the Subansiri river, a Brahmaputra tributary. Located at Gogamukh, it spans the Kamle district of Arunachal Pradesh and Dhemaji district of Assam. Delays stemmed from protests over forest land transfers, downstream concerns, and National Green Tribunal (NGT) interventions, halted the construction until October 2019. Committees like Thatte and Reddy were formed, but their reports lacked consensus, prolonging delays. Following NGT clearances, construction resumed in 2019, and 93% of the 2000 MW project is now complete. NHPC, the Indian public sector hydropower company that runs this project, aims to generate 750 MW by March 2025, reaching full 2000 MW capacity by March 2026 with eight turbines.

Insights from Dhemaji

At the Gogamukh revenue circle, a village in Dhemaji district, it appeared that the SLHEP was bringing some changes to the lives of people in this historically underdeveloped region. Notably, the entire Dhemaji district lies within a flood-prone area, having experienced 25 flood events between 2015 and 2023. Additionally, Gogamukh revenue circle has long struggled with economic stagnation, limited industries, and climate-induced migration. Its subsistence agrarian economy remains highly vulnerable to recurring floods that disrupt livelihoods and infrastructure, perpetuating poverty and underdevelopment.

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic worsened the crisis, forcing migrant workers to return, straining local resources in an already fragile economy. Families reliant on urban remittances faced financial distress. Amid this, the SLHEP emerged as a rare relief, providing temporary jobs at Rs. 700 per day, offering short-term stability in an otherwise uncertain landscape. A construction worker recounted his journey, his voice reflecting both the hardships of the past and the optimism of the present, “Before the Subansiri hydel power project, I had to work outside the state, leaving my family behind to take up uncertain jobs with unstable wages. Since joining the project, I’ve acquired new skills and now operate machinery. Today, I own a house, live with my family, and have even purchased a bike. Our standard of living has improved dramatically. This is everything I ever wanted — a secure and stable future for my family.”

However, a key question remains: does SLHEP ensure economic justice by fostering upskilling for long-term employment in renewable energy, uphold environmental justice by promoting sustainable livelihoods, and advance social justice by equitably distributing skill development benefits, particularly to marginalized communities?

Development for whom?

While the SLHEP has brought hope and opportunities to some, a more troubling reality persists. Despite the promise of stable incomes and technical skills, local families are increasingly concerned about job security and long-term prospects. The project has primarily provided temporary, ad-hoc employment, and many fear that once the dam is operational, maintenance roles will be handed to outside workers, side-lining the local workforce. This concern is compounded by perceptions that locals, often more vocal about internal issues, might be excluded in favour of outsiders.

The uncertainty surrounding sustained employment casts a shadow over the initial optimism, leaving many to wonder if their newfound hope is merely fleeting. Questions about SLHEP’s commitment to inclusive employment are growing. Conversations with workers revealed that SLHEP primarily employs engineers and a significant number of workers from outside the region, with its core focus on hydroelectric power generation. It often side-lines the concerns of local communities, they say. The benefits seem to flow outward, while those living in the shadow of the dam continue to struggle.

For SLHEP to truly align with the principles of economic justice, it must transcend short-term employment and invest in the long-term well-being of local communities. This involves creating sustained job opportunities, implementing robust skill development programs, and prioritising local workers for permanent roles. Without these measures, the project risks becoming yet another example of development that enriches corporations while leaving vulnerable populations behind. True economic justice requires that those who bear the costs of such projects also share in their benefits.

A river disrupted and livelihood lost

The SLHEP’s impact is stark in downstream Lakhimpur, Assam, where rising water levels erode vast land areas annually. Instead of replenishing waters, floods now deposit excess sediments, reducing river depth. This disrupts the fragile ecosystem, depleting fish populations and hindering breeding. Boulder extraction has worsened sedimentation, and villagers report dolphin disappearance. Soft sedimentary rocks heighten earthquake risks, while downstream Assam faces worsening floods. Political divisions between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh further complicate the crisis.

While flooding is a major concern during the monsoons, a contrasting issue arises during dry spells in some villages of Lakhimpur’s Kadam Circle. The river now referred to as ‘mora Subansiri’ (dead Subansiri), have seen a decline in water levels since 2005. Villagers, once plagued by floods, now mourn the loss of water supply that once supported their livelihoods.

The immediate aftermath of heavy rains, when the dam gates open, causes catastrophic flooding. Though NHPC sends early warnings, they are often too late for communities to prepare. Lakhimpur residents share that by the time they get the warning, the flood has already started and sweeps away homes, cattle, and their belongings.

This delay highlights a reactive system, leaving vulnerable communities in a constant state of emergency. Despite compensation from the government of Rs. 95,000 per household, there is no long-term solution. Repeated requests for embankments to reduce erosion and flooding have gone unmet, with makeshift solutions like geo bags offering little protection.

For SLHEP to align with environmental justice, it must address these severe, far-reaching impacts. True environmental justice requires affected communities to be active participants in decision-making, ensuring that development does not come at the cost of their environment, livelihoods, or future.

The broken promises of development

During the initial public hearings of the project, many Gogamukh residents signed petitions in favour of the project, enticed by promises of jobs and development, yet largely unaware of its long-term consequences. Over time, as opposition to the project grew, the absence of strong leadership left many residents feeling resigned to the inevitable. Instead of resisting, they adapted.

Farmers, grappling with dwindling water supplies during dry spells, shifted from cultivating paddy — a staple food crop essential for their household consumption — to more water-efficient cash crops such as sesame, pulses, and mustard. While this transition may address immediate water scarcity, it has disrupted their self-sufficiency, leaving many households vulnerable as they now rely on market-oriented crops rather than staples to sustain their livelihoods.

Local and political institutions occasionally provide relief, distributing essential items like potatoes, pulses, onions, and mustard seeds to support farming. However, this aid is inconsistent and unfairly distributed, exacerbating existing inequalities and deepening the community’s hardships. The question remains: what was once a promise of progress has become a daily struggle for survival. SLHEP’s benefits largely favour external stakeholders, while local communities bear its costs. True social justice requires equitable compensation, community-driven decisions, and sustainable livelihoods. Without these, SLHEP risks widening, not bridging, social and economic gaps.

What does the future hold?

As of 2018, Assam contributed just 1.11% of India’s emissions yet remains highly vulnerable to climate change, worsened by deforestation in Arunachal Pradesh. A university expert recommended regional planning with small-scale hydropower (500 MW each), afforestation, and community-led flood mitigation. Proper assessments must guide future developments to avoid high-risk zones. As SLHEP nears full operation, its success must be measured beyond megawatts — ensuring economic, environmental, and social justice. Without equitable jobs, fair resource distribution, and sustainable livelihoods, it risks widening disparities instead of fostering inclusive growth. Though hydropower is central to a just transition, unchecked conflicts, inequalities, and displacement could turn it into a ‘violent transition,’ especially in Dhemaji and Lakhimpur. Achieving justice demands proactive planning, grassroots solutions, and fair resource allocation — not just reactive policies. This raises critical questions: Are we preventing crises or merely reacting to them? Is hydropower leading us to sustainability or deepening social and environmental injustices? The answers will decide whether SLHEP becomes a model for just development or a cautionary tale of unintended consequences.

(Published under Creative Commons from Mongabay India. Read the original article here)